The economists, however, were unequivocal about the effect of an open market on Canadian dairy farmers.
“If trade were liberalized tomorrow, then American milk would likely flood the Canadian market,” they wrote. “Canada’s farmers would not be able to compete with the price of American milk and eventually the entire Canadian dairy industry would be dependent on imported milk.”
All of this is taking place at that the same time that Canadians, like most people outside Asia, continue to drink less milk each year.
Under supply management, farmers exchange not being able to export their products for the stability and high prices brought by the system. But most types of farming in Canada are not covered by supply management and depend heavily on exports.
The Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, a group of farmers, food processors and related businesses, said the bill in Parliament “severely constrains Canada’s ability to negotiate the best free trade agreements for all sectors of the Canadian economy, agriculture and non-agriculture alike.”
When the House of Commons passed the bill last June, the Conservatives divided roughly in half, with 56 voting in favor of it. Most, if not all, of those members are from constituencies that include supply-managed farms. By contrast, only a single Liberal, from central Toronto, broke with his party and voted against the bill.
The proposed limits on trade negotiators are not a theoretical maybe. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the revised version of NAFTA, comes up for review in 2026. Given that the United States has already twice challenged Canada’s restrictions on dairy through the U.S.M.C.A. dispute process, it’s certain that it will again be looking for changes in supply management in two years, regardless of what Parliament decides.